CHR Methodology
Please note: This is an Historical Page. It documents the collaborative effort done here and in the forum in pursuit of the CHR rewards formula. Since the formulas has been already found, don't edit this page unless you notice some error or a change in behavior of the CHR. ' Introduction A very long thread has spawned in the forum with reports from all kind of adventurers of their encounters with the Rider. As of 5th of September 2008, it has 13 pages, 373 replies and 3834 views. To simplify the arduous task of looking up the data, I'm going to traverse all the thread compiling data, and will update this page with the results, and page I'm on. By the way, my objective is to show that the rewards are really random, but I won't be surprised if the numbers contradict me in the end ~Scarbrow Now parsing page number: 16 (and this will be the last one I follow). Now the thread has 450 replies and 4511 views. ~Scarbrow Please note there is some discrepancy on MR and To-hit numbers from the first pages to last ones, so either there have been some errors on the reporting or some tweaking in the scenario since it first came out. That's why I'm compiling data from first to last in the pages, and from Top to bottom in the table. If there are inconsistencies among first and last values, maybe we should blame the same reasons that for MR changes. Possibly the best answer (by the GM himself) is here: "''Hi, the difficulty level of the rider depends upon which face he is showing. The face of the "young man" is the least difficult, while the "black void" is the most difficult. There is a chance at the end for the Experienced reward to be for all powers and skills, general, or for a single skill/power. There will be a chance for other bonuses/prizes as well". The quote is from 6 Feb 2008. The "chance for other bonuses" is widely thought as a reference to Moonpath. Data gathering The values shown on the table below were gathered from this thread on the forum, pages 1 to 15. More data was added from a Word document that Young Ned compiled, and from 21 consecutive days of visiting the Rider with my (Scarbrow's) 4 characters. The last data is on the Excel document, but not in the table, and only parts of it in the forum. You can check for yourself the data in the Excel spreadsheet that was used to compile and calculate values. The final values for probabilities that are pubished on the main CHR page come from an interpolation of the results from the three sets of data (Forum, Scarbrow's and Young Ned's). Correlations and bounds found so far * Maximum known reward is 384 XP to all skills and powers. * Minimum known reward is 0 (a rare but not unique case, even at 17), otherwise it's 4. A zero reward is almost certainly a glitch, as there is no other case where a scaled scenario gives you no experience. * Distribution of faces shows roughly the same probability of appearance of each of the faces: about 20%, with +or- 5% variation. The percentages tends more strictly to 20% as more data is added. * The distribution for type of reward is: 60% of the times is a General EXP, 35% is a specific EXP (selected randomly from the ones the character have), and 5% of the time is for All Skills and Powers. This data is gathered from results 121 to 258, and keeps absolutely steady when adding the first 42 results of page 15 of the forum thread (mine), so we have a confirmed value here. And since the values are the same no matter the type of face (which is equiprobable) we can safely assume that the type of face is not linked to the type of reward whatsoever. * By quantity of XP recieved, rewards are generally higher as the sum of the three rolls gets higher. The reward gets drawn from an array of possible results, the "normal" and the two values inmediately above and below. Theories proposed and discarded * The rewards depend on the order of the rolls, or whether the CHR threw knives at you: '''False. No tendency has been found that could support these speculations. The only valid correlations are among the total number rolled and the rewards. Also, no direct correlation has been found to whether you challenge the CHR (same rewards for same rolls). It only affects it indirectly by way of the rerolls. * The range of rewards is also face-dependent: False. Sometimes the weaker faces get higher rewards, and other times the contrary. No statistical correlation at all. * The number on his hand (number of consecutive visits) affects the outcome. False. To date, there is no data indicating this. Moreover, the number of days is not intrinsic to the CHR, and all the variables discovered so far are intrinsic to the face shown or random, like the choosing of the face or the type of reward. Besides, it would give a considerable advantage to players who play the scenario daily. (The only occurrence of the number affecting anything is at number 7, when he gives you the directions to Moonpath). Until there is some strong data indicating a correlation, I think this speculation can be safely discarded. Table of reports Please note that all values shown here from Page 10 onwards are also on the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet linked from the main page of the CHR. Category:Data pages